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When Theory Becomes Reality Around Us: Leadership and Decision-Making in a VUCA World
15/02/2026
I haven't written here for a while. Not because I stopped thinking—but because I was paying attention.
Over the past years, I have spoken and written extensively about the VUCA world. In previous articles (https://www.saroltabesenyei.com/l/2025-survival-strategies-for-romanian-companies/ , https://www.saroltabesenyei.com/l/economic-challenges-from-a-global-perspective-and-zooming-in-on-europe-particularly-central-and-eastern-europe-cee/ ) I explored how volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity reshape leadership, decision-making and entrepreneurship. At the time, VUCA was largely treated as a conceptual framework—a way to describe what might come. Today, it is no longer a framework. It is lived reality.
What once belonged to theory has now entered the language of political leaders, central bankers and economic analysts. Not always named explicitly—but consistently present.
Observing the World, Not Predicting It
Over the past month, I deliberately collected public statements from political leaders, central bankers and leading economists. Not selectively. Not historically. Only from the last four weeks.
My intention was simple: to understand how the world currently describes itself. I selected ten statements. Not to prove a point—but to identify a pattern. What connects them is not terminology. It is tone.
Rapid change. Uncertain outcomes. Interconnected crises. Contradictory signals.
This is no longer crisis communication. It is baseline reality.
What These Statements Really Reveal - Volatility, Uncertainty and Complexity—All at Once
"Recent geopolitical events have made the world more turbulent, increasing uncertainty and creating complex risks for inflation and growth." — Tiff Macklem, Governor, Bank of Canada
This is not a warning. It is a description of the operating environment.
"We are operating in an environment of exceptionally high uncertainty, with volatile inflation dynamics and complex transmission mechanisms." — Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
Stable trajectories have been replaced by continuous adjustment.
"The global economy faces heightened uncertainty, increased financial volatility and complex spillover effects from geopolitical fragmentation." — Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist, IMF
The economy is no longer a closed system. Geopolitics, finance and society now move together.
A System in the Process of Reordering
"We are seeing a breakdown of the rules-based international order, where economic security, geopolitics and supply chains are increasingly intertwined." — Mark Carney, World Economic Forum, Davos
This is not a temporary disruption. It is structural reordering.
"The world is entering a period of intensified competition marked by uncertainty, economic volatility and geopolitical complexity." — Børge Brende, President, World Economic Forum
Competition has intensified—but more importantly, it has become less predictable.
Rapid Change and the Challenge of Interpretation
"Policy decisions are being made in an environment where the outlook is highly uncertain and subject to rapid change." — Jerome Powell, Chair, Federal Reserve
The question is no longer if change will occur, but how fast.
"Global financial markets remain volatile amid uncertainty over geopolitical developments and complex monetary interactions." — Kazuo Ueda, Governor, Bank of Japan
Signals are no longer clear. Interpretation has become part of leadership itself.
Politics, Economy and Society—No Longer Separate
"Europe must navigate an increasingly complex global environment marked by uncertainty, economic pressure and geopolitical instability." — Ursula von der Leyen, President, European Commission
Every decision now carries multi-layered consequences.
"We are facing an unusual combination of market volatility, policy uncertainty and structural complexity that challenges traditional forecasting." — Mohamed El-Erian, Economist
Traditional models are not wrong. They were simply not designed for this world.
"Economic, technological and geopolitical forces are interacting in increasingly complex and unpredictable ways." — Saadia Zahidi, World Economic Forum
Uncertainty is no longer the exception. It has become the framework.
What This Means for Leadership Today
Strong leadership today is not about seeing everything in
advance,
but about understanding that you cannot.
Leadership in a VUCA world requires a shift:
- less control,
- more sense-making,
- fewer promises,
- clearer direction.
People do not need certainty. They need orientation.
This role can feel lonely. But it is also more human—and more honest—than ever before.
What This Means for Entrepreneurs
The VUCA world is not a phase to survive. It is not a temporary disruption.
It is the new operating environment.
The real entrepreneurial questions today are:
- What do we commit to?
- What do we deliberately avoid?
- What do we protect when everything else is shifting?
The most mature business decisions today are often quiet. But they are intentional and consistent.
What Remains Stable When Everything Else Changes?
Not markets.
Not politics.
Not forecasts.
What remains is the internal compass.
The value system that guides decisions when information is incomplete.
The mindset that interprets circumstances through principles—not the other way around.
This idea was already central in my earlier article on the VUCA world. Today, it feels even more urgent.
We are not living through a crisis. We are living in a new baseline.
The VUCA world is not a future scenario. It is the context in which leadership and business decisions are made today.
Key insights:
- Uncertainty is no longer an exception—it is a condition.
- Rapid change is not a disruption—it is a mode of operation.
- Complexity cannot be simplified without consequences.
- Ambiguity is not an error—it is an interpretive task.
Those who thrive are not the ones who predict best, but those who remain capable of understanding what is happening around them, while staying aligned with their internal compass.
The real question is no longer how we return to stability, but how we remain meaning-makers in an unstable world.
This is where the thinking continues.
This article focuses on interpretation rather than economic forecasting.
Understanding the environment we operate in is a prerequisite for any meaningful analysis — but analysis itself requires a different depth and structure. For those who would like to go further, I provide tailored analysis and management-focused insights on operating in a VUCA environment, specifically designed for leaders and decision-makers.
If you would like to explore this perspective in more depth, feel free to reach out and I will be happy to share further analysis.
Email: contact@saroltabesenyei.com